2012′s final mortgage rate report showed that mortgage rates have fallen near record lows, keeping home prices low and home affordability at a significantly high percent. According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed rate mortgage loans dropped from 3.95% to 3.35% from this time last year, and 15-year fixed rate mortgage loans decreased 3.24% from one year ago. The 5-year, Treasury-indexed hybrid, showed that adjustable-rate mortgages are also lower than the 2.88% rate recorded last year. More here
According to Economic Forecasting And Analysis Company IHS Global Insight, home sales and home prices are up. In October, existing home sales increased from 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.79 million units. The Case-Shiller report and the Federal Housing Finance Agency report showed price increases of nearly 4%. This percentage is expected to fall over the winter months, as winter is traditionally the low season for home sales. Patrick Newport, an IHS Global Insight economist believes the market is driven by “the fact that we haven’t been building at high levels for a long time.” more here.
RealtyTrac’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report for October 2012 shows foreclosure filings, including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions, are down 19 percent from October 2011, though they rose 3.0 percent from the month before. Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, said foreclosure trends vary widely across the country primarily depending on how well each state was able to handle the high volume of delinquent loans during the worst of the foreclosure crisis. According to the report, foreclosure starts were filed on 89,209 properties in October, which represents a 19 percent drop from last year and the third consecutive month with an annual decrease. Also, the report shows one in every 706 housing units with a foreclosure filing during the month. More here.
RealtyTrac’s Q3 2012 Metropolitan Foreclosure Market Report tracks foreclosure activity in cities with populations of 200,000 or more. In the third quarter of this year, foreclosure activity fell from a year ago in 131 of the 212 metropolitan areas included in the report. Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, said two-thirds of the nation’s largest metros posted decreases in foreclosure activity in the third quarter, indicating that most of the nation’s housing markets are past the worst of the foreclosure problem. Foreclosure activity fell from the previous quarter in 63 percent of included metros. More here.
Freddie Mac’s recently released Economic and Housing Market Outlook for October shows housing contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the first half of 2012 after being a net drag from 2006 through 2010. The housing sector is also expected to contribute to growth during the second half of the year. Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s vice president and chief economist, said the recovery has been unlike any other over the past 65 years but we are now seeing housing resume its traditional role of leading the charge. Also in the report, Freddie Mac projects 7 million borrowers will refinance their loans in 2012, resulting in $15 billion in mortgage-payment savings over the first year. That savings will help further boost the economy by strengthening homeowners’ financial situations and overall consumer confidence. More here.
A recent report from Fitch Ratings forecasts continued gains for the housing market through the end of the year. According to the report, modest growth in the economy, combined with fewer distressed sales and higher rental costs, will lead to continued improvement in both housing starts and home sales. Fitch predicts housing starts will end the year up 19 percent, new home sales will increase 19.5 percent, and existing-home sales will post a 8.5 percent gain. They also expect home prices to continue to increase with additional gains in 2013. Despite their optimistic outlook, they caution that, though recent data suggests the housing recovery has taken hold, there are still a number of looming challenges that could threaten the progress and curb current forecasts. More here.
In September, foreclosure filings were reported on 180,427 properties, down 7.0 percent from August and 16 percent below last year’s level. September’s total was the lowest since July 2007 and helped lower third-quarter foreclosure numbers 5.0 percent from the second quarter and 13 percent from the third quarter of 2011. The numbers, from RealtyTrac’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, show it was the ninth straight quarter with an annual decrease in foreclosure activity. Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac’s vice president, said analysts have been waiting for the other foreclosure shoe to drop but instead it’s being carefully lowered to the floor, making little noise in the housing market at a national level. More here.
In yet another positive sign for national home values, CoreLogic’s August Home Price Index reveals a year-over-year increase of 4.6 percent and a month-over-month gain of 0.3 percent. The improvement marks the sixth consecutive price increase on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis. And, when excluding sales of distressed properties, prices nationwide were up 4.9 percent compared to one year earlier. Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist, said he expects the price gains to continue in September and points out that the recent improvement has been increasingly geographically diverse. According to Fleming, only six states continue to show declining prices. CoreLogic is forecasting a 5.0 percent improvement for their upcoming September price report. More here and here.
In yet another positive sign for national home values, CoreLogic’s August Home Price Index reveals a year-over-year increase of 4.6 percent and a month-over-month gain of 0.3 percent. The improvement marks the sixth consecutive price increase on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis. And, when excluding sales of distressed properties, prices nationwide were up 4.9 percent compared to one year earlier. Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist, said he expects the price gains to continue in September and points out that the recent improvement has been increasingly geographically diverse. According to Fleming, only six states continue to show declining prices. CoreLogic is forecasting a 5.0 percent improvement for their upcoming September price report. More here and here.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are among the most closely followed measures of home values in the United States. They are intended to accurately track the price path of single-family homes in each of the included metropolitan areas. According to the latest release, which contains data through the end of July, home prices experienced their third consecutive month of increases, with gains to both the 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes. Average home prices increased 1.5 percent for the 10-City Composite and 1.6 percent for the 20-City Composite. It would have been the fourth straight month of improvement had Detroit’s prices not fallen 0.6 percent in April. David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee, said the report confirms the recent good news about housing and is reason for optimism. More here and here.
